Market trends at 30 September 2020

Due to the Covid-19 emergency and related health measures (total closure of the physical sales channel – bookshops and chains – with limitation also of sales in the e-commerce channel), the Trade book market recorded, at the end of the first half of the year, a progressive decrease of 10.1% in value compared to 2019, the result of a contraction generated mainly in March (-29.2%) and April (-45.8%).

The strong growth experienced in the third quarter (+8.4% compared to the third quarter of 2019) allowed the market to make a significant recovery, which meant that at 30 September the contraction compared to the same period of the previous year was reduced to -3.8%.

On the magazine market, 2020 showed the following trends in the first nine months of the year:
– the advertising market registered an overall drop of -15.9%; all channels registered a contraction, heavily affected by the negative effects of the Covid-19 health emergency: digital -7.1%, TV -15.3%, newspapers -19.7%, radio -30.1% and magazines -40.3%. The
only digital segment showed, in the months of July and August, a drastic reversal of the trend with a growth of about 24% compared to the same two-month period in 2019;
– the circulation market decreased by -12.0%;
– the add-ons market recorded a negative trend of -0.6%.

Market's evolution

9M201H201Q20FY199M191H191Q19FY189M181H181Q18FY179M171H17
 Trade books -3,8% -10,1% -9,6% +5,5% +4,6% +4,0%+0,8% -1,1% -0,4%-0,1%4,1%5,4%2,3%1,3%
  • Bookstore chains and e-commerce*
 n.d. n.d. n.d. +8,3% +7,5% +6,9% +0,8% -1,1% -1,3%-1,2%0,8%2,7%1,9%1,4%
  • Independent bookstores
 n.d. n.d. n.d.-1,3% -1,5% -0,6% -2,6% -2,7% -3,5%-3,2%-1,3%-2,0%-4,1%-4,8%
  • E-commerce
 – – – – – +10,6% 8,5% 12,911,6%21,6%37,3%24,6%21,4%
  • Large retailers
 n.d. n.d. n.d. 0,0% -3,4% -8,0% -17,3% -18,7% -16,7%-12,5%-4,5%-12,2%-14,2%-15,4%
Magazines
  • Circulation**
 -12,0% -11,3% -8,8% -12,4% -12,3% -12,3% -13,5% -8,6% -9,0%-9,1%-9,3%-10,6%-11,9%-12,7%
  • Advertising

Print

 -40,3% -41,5% -12,2% -13,9% -15,2% -15,4% -13,1% -8,2% -8,9%-8,6%-11,0%-6,2%-7,0%-6,1%

Web

 -7,1% -17,2% +4,8% +3,5% +2,1% +2,0% +3,0% 4,5% 4,0%2,1%2,5%1,7%-1,0%0,6%
  • Add-ons
 -0,6% -3,7% -2,1% -11,9% -7,9% -6,9% -5,6% -18,2% -10,8%-16,4%-19,5%-21,9%-27,7%-29,7%

* As of May 2019, GfK expanded its coverage panel by increasing the survey of e-commerce operators; as a result, the overall market value and the relative yoy differences were re-profiled and the details by channel were revised by merging book chains and e-commerce.

* Starting from 1H 2016, the % variations refer to the whole circulation market trends (newstands + subscriptions)

Sources
Trade book: GFK (value)
Magazine: circulation, internal estimate (value) – advertising, Nielsen (value)