Market trends in the first 9 months of 2018

The Trade Books market was basically steady in the first nine months of the year versus the same period of the prior year (‐0.4%)[1].
Sales channels continued the trends seen in the last quarters:

  • bookstore chains (approximately 45% of the total market) were down (‐1.3%), while independent bookstores (approximately 25% of the market) dropped by ‐3.5%;
  • e‐commerce increased by +12.9%, making for approximately 23% of the total market;
  • large retailers continued the downward trend recorded over the last few quarters, dropping by 16.7% and making for approximately 8% of the market.

Italian magazines markets in the first nine months of 2018 reported a sharp downward trend.
The advertising market ended at breakeven overall (+0.0%), with growth reported by the television channel (+1.2%), and a drop in print media (newspapers ‐6.2%, magazines ‐8.9%); growth continued  in the Internet channel (+4.0%), positively[2] affected by advertising sales related to the FIFA World Cup, net of which estimates point to a figure around +2.0%[3].
The magazine circulation market dropped by ‐9.0%, with a slowdown in both the newsstands and subscriptions channels; in this context, Mondadori retained its leadership with a 30.9% market share (31.9% in September 2017)[4].
The add‐ons market in the first 9 months of the year delivered a rather negative performance (‐10.8%), though improving versus the trend seen in 2017.

In the period under review, Mondadori France’s relevant markets continued to decline versus the prior
year:

  • in newsstand sales (‐7.0% at August)[5];
  • in print advertising sales (‐10.7% at June)[6].

[1] Source: GfK, September 2018 (figures in terms of market value)
[2] Source: Nielsen, cumulative figures at September 2018
[3] Internal estimate
[4] Internal source: Press‐Di, cumulative figures at September 2018 (newsstands + subscriptions) in terms of value
[5] Source: Mondadori France + Presstalis, figure at August 2018
[6] Source: Net Index, cumulative figures in terms of value at June 2018

Market's evolution

9M181H181Q18FY179M171H171Q17FY169M161H161Q16FY159M151H15
Trade books -0.4%-0.1%4.1%5.4%2.3%1.3%-0.4%0.7%2.3%2.6%0.5%0.9%-2.0%
  • Bookstore chains
 -1.3%-1.2%0.8%2.7%1.9%1.4%0.2%2.4%4.9%6.0%4.6%1.9%-2.2%
  • Independent bookstores
 -3.5%-3.2%-1.3%-2.0%-4.1%-4.8%-7.3%-6.5%-1.1%-1.4%-3.3%0.4%-2.5%
  • E-commerce
 12.9%11.6%21.6%37.3%24.6%21.4%23.7%15.6%17.0%15.6%8.2%6.6%6.4%
  • Large retailers
 -16.7%-12.5%-4.5%-12.2%-14.2%-15.4%-20.3%-15.7%-13.1%-12.5%-10.8%-5.9%-7.6%
Magazines Italy
  • Circulation*
 -9.0%-9.1%-9.3%-10.6%-11.9%-12.7%-11,5%-10.6%-8.3%-8.8%-7.1%-7.3%-7.0%
  • Advertising

Print

 -8.9%-8.6%-11.0%-6.2%-7.0%-6.1%-7.7%-4.0%-3.6%-3.0%-4.5%-4.1%-3.9%

Web

 4.0%2.1%2.5%1.7%-1.0%0.6%-2.6%-2.3%-1.6%-1.9%0.8%-0.7%-1.3%
  • Add ons
 -10.8%-16.4%-21.9%-27.7%-29,7%-26.8%-12.8%-6.7%-6.8%-3.0%-4.1%-2.2%
Magazines France
  • Circulation (newsstands)
 -7.0%-4.8%-19.5%-6.1%-6.8%-8.1%-8.1%-5.4%-5.3%-4.4%-5.6%-4.5%-4.3%
  • Advertising (print)
 -10.7%-10.7%-9.9%-10.8%-11.4%-11.2%n.d.-8.4%-6.3%-3.1%-1.8%-6.3%-8.1%

* Starting from 1H 2016, the % variations refer to the whole circulation market trends (newstands + subscriptions)

Sources
Trade book: GFK (value)
Magazine Italy: circulation, internal estimate (value) – advertising, Nielsen (value)
Magazine France: circulation, internal estimate + Presstalis (value) – advertising, Net Index (value)