The three-year period 2018-2020 will be dedicated to strengthening the Mondadori Group in the markets in which it operates and improving the performance of its core activities.
With regard to the book business, affected by a more stable market trend, although with few opportunities to expand in Italy, its improvement will have to take into account the potential offered by the parallel retail business, with the expansion of the franchising channel, and take advantage, where possible, of opportunities for growth abroad, since the Antitrust Authority would not allow a further expansion of the market share in Italy.
The magazine business, on the other hand, in view of the persistent decline in the markets in which we operate (in Italy and France), will have to focus on the development of digital, the quality of content and brands and the optimisation of operating processes and cost structures.
For financial year 2018, it is reasonable to estimate, on a like-for-like basis with respect to 2017:
- a slight contraction in consolidated revenues;
- adjusted EBITDA essentially stable;
- a contraction in net profit, due to non-recurring positive items in 2017;
- cash flow from ordinary operations between € 55 and 60 million.
For financial year 2019, still on the current scope of consolidation, the same revenue trend as for 2018 is expected, with an adjusted EBITDA up around € 110 million, a net profit of over € 30 million, an ordinary cash generation of over € 50 million and a net financial position of less than -€150 million (with an NFP/EBITDA – like fot like and excluding dividends – of about 1.3x).
Between 2013 and 2016, thanks to the actions taken to improve the economic and financial balance of the Group’s accounts and the strategic repositioning obtained by focusing on the core business of books and magazines, we have:
- doubled the adjusted EBITDA, going from € 49.1 million (FY2013) to about € 100 million (FY2016, in the hypothesis of consolidation of the acquisitions from 1 January 2016);
- positive EBITDA in all business areas;
- exceeded € 50 million in yearly ordinary annual cash flow;
- reduced the NFP/EBITDA ratio from >7x to <3x.
The acquisitions of Rizzoli, which allowed us to grow in the book business by consolidating our position at the top of the trade books sector and achieving leadership in educational publishing, and the activities of Banzai Media, a key element in the development strategy of our brands in the magazine sector that has allowed us to become the leading Italian publisher of magazines also in the digital environment, were fundamental.
The process of consolidation and economic and financial development continued in 2017:
- EBITDA growth at € 106 million;
- yearly ordinary cash flow >€ 60 million;
- PFD/EBITDA at 1.8x.